MLB · resolved market
Guardians vs. Nationals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03d98588a81fdccc909ddf3734cbe3062e08f028c819b92117b63156c48df604
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Guardiansof Guardians, Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $271,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $286,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $271,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Guardians | 2c | 37,209$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,316.19 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Guardians | 2c | 25,640$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,027.97 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +298.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Guardians | 43c | 25,268$10,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,423.51 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Guardians | 50c | 24,334$12,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,057.58 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Nationals | 48c | 16,840$8,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,083.27 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Guardians | 52c | 15,000$7,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,200 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a6…f308backed Guardians | 1c | 10,000$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,890 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +1,718.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Nationals | 0c | 7,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf586…f614backed Guardians | 3c | 5,561$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,400.03 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +206.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2392…0d4bbacked Guardians | 4c | 5,410$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,218.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +288%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ac…957dbacked Guardians | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,800 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked Guardians | 41c | 2,950$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,739.59 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae36…8fb5backed Guardians | 44c | 1,729$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.15 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Guardians | 52c | 1,600$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768 | 264 | 53.8%142 W · 122 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Guardians | 53c | 1,000$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.38 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Guardians | 41c | 895.54$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.57 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Nationals | 45c | 888.99$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.05 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Nationals | 46c | 875.6$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.04 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Guardians | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.27 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Nationals | 47c | 700$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Nationals | 4c | 547.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Guardians | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.7 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…d440backed Nationals | 32c | 339.25$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked Guardians | 6c | 308.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +224.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…bb35backed Nationals | 58c | 287.38$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Guardians | 52c | 257.7$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.7 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Nationals | 48c | 233.04$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.86 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Guardians | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 45cpaid | +271.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked Nationals | 48c | 199$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.52 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Guardians | 52c | 199$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.52 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Guardians | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed Nationals | 77c | 188.1$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.37 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Guardians | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Guardians | 54c | 156.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.22 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Guardians | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Nationals | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Nationals | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Guardians | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…bf18backed Guardians | 9c | 145.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +223.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Nationals | 63c | 120$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Nationals | 45c | 71.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Nationals | 47c | 62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…f4dbbacked Nationals | 47c | 58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x464f…3ef7backed Guardians | 53c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…cda6backed Guardians | 38c | 55.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +61%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Guardians | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Nationals | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Nationals | 48c | 49.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…9aedbacked Nationals | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…d472backed Guardians | 54c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Guardians | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Guardians | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Nationals | 47c | 26.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Nationals | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Nationals | 56c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.