Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kawasaki Frontale end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03f5fbf26c3abd01deb029579f11177d8dfc72353ecda4ed86fa82258237d4c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked No | 73c | 5,296$3,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.89 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes | 10c | 4,527$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.54 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +82%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 27c | 1,293$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.1 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 20c | 1,164$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.82 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 27c | 999.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 46c | 555.67$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.71 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 22c | 554.15$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.89 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 22c | 366.73$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Yes | 20c | 342.35$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 49c | 336$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.78 | 158 | 26.6%42 W · 116 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 65c | 276.88$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.31 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 49c | 271.79$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.18 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 219.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.32 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 76c | 198$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 585 | 42.7%250 W · 335 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4284…4e8cbacked Yes | 10c | 170.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cf…2546backed Yes | 21c | 166.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 27c | 155$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Yes | 21c | 154$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 215 | 74.4%160 W · 55 L | +45.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 66c | 148.12$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 27c | 132.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 80c | 123.07$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 78c | 121$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 53c | 114.4$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 152 | 40.1%61 W · 91 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a746backed Yes | 10c | 107.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 27c | 105.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 67c | 104.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…5694backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 25c | 98.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 72c | 95.76$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…1938backed No | 74c | 89.68$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…522fbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 68c | 86.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 22c | 71.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked No | 61c | 59.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 27c | 58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Yes | 56c | 53.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664e…eccdbacked Yes | 39c | 47.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 35c | 47.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 271 | 48%130 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1528…b976backed Yes | 38c | 44.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 40c | 39.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 77c | 38.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +16.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 79c | 38.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Yes | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 78c | 23.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d76…517cbacked No | 66c | 22.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 62c | 18.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kawasaki Frontale end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-05-24?No won
- Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-05-24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.