Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0404251fbd6589f04e52ac63d89e89d1329df48bc9729519833843d0c6813aa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 36c | 1,702$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.54 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 65c | 872.26$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.72 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 315.5$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…c6adbacked Yes | 30c | 285.72$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.37 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 39c | 280$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 42c | 242$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.51 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed Yes | 38c | 237.8$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.02 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 228.13$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.77 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 228$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.7 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 64c | 194$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 47c | 139.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 38c | 125.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes | 35c | 125$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 38c | 115.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…ec87backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 62c | 93.68$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 70c | 90.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 47c | 85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd56…45c3backed No | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 30c | 77.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 18c | 70.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 62c | 68.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 65c | 61.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 56.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed No | 70c | 56.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed No | 70c | 53.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 29c | 52.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…b81fbacked No | 70c | 51.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 36c | 50.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…df3abacked No | 67c | 44.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 48c | 43.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…4306backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa052…925abacked Yes | 44c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…945ebacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 74c | 27.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 63c | 27.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x291a…a405backed No | 64c | 26.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 22.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 71c | 22.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed No | 72c | 20.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 20.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a99…7171backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2228…e009backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 6?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on July 6?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 6?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 6?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 6?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.