Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee68797c7c0478aeffc174853dc3760e4682fb27c79d1de1bd2664d3e49c7f0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 40c | 1,180$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.28 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 36c | 908.14$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.14 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 59c | 503.24$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.35 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 33c | 456.31$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.16 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked No | 20c | 353$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.61 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 343.36$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.61 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 22c | 300$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 11c | 227$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 23c | 199.55$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.32 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed No | 30c | 142.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.01 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7988…d97bbacked Yes | 78c | 128.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +119.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 121.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed No | 58c | 110$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…c952backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 80c | 99.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.83 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 17c | 99.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.53 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 66c | 99.08$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 95.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2120…a5a7backed Yes | 26c | 84.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 67c | 81.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc6…a78bbacked Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62d9…6da7backed No | 36c | 72.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 30c | 72.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 66c | 69.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…3a55backed Yes | 37c | 61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 29c | 58.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 26c | 57.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 22c | 57.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfad0…3a91backed Yes | 38c | 52.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 70c | 51.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 50c | 50.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d56…b88dbacked Yes | 36c | 49.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…f0ddbacked Yes | 78c | 44.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 80c | 43.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 39.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 36.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 32.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 35c | 31.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 78c | 29.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 78c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed No | 54c | 23.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 62c | 22.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc22b…7fdfbacked Yes | 79c | 18.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…cd19backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 77c | 14.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 76c | 14.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 6?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on July 6?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 6?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 6?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 6?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.