Premier League · resolved market
Birmingham City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x044411fc07145d140758acc6f79738808bd01d1d783c57d04875dcd4f480769b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 28c | 956.69$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.02 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 69c | 759.97$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.95 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 30c | 325.67$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 31c | 161$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Under | 31c | 145$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 31c | 137$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Under | 31c | 132$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Under | 31c | 130$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Under | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 31c | 112$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 31c | 95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Under | 31c | 92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Under | 31c | 84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…a045backed Under | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Over | 69c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b3…0d89backed Over | 69c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Over | 69c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…60e5backed Over | 69c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Over | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 69c | 43.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 241 | 58.1%140 W · 101 L | +34.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x370a…cccebacked Over | 69c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Over | 69c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Over | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…95a8backed Over | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…7d27backed Over | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Over | 69c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Under | 31c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7c…1214backed Over | 69c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed Over | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…ffcebacked Over | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked Over | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…e856backed Over | 69c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1b…854dbacked Over | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4390…e842backed Over | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed Over | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd253…14d9backed Over | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77ec…4f9cbacked Over | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed Over | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…1ddcbacked Over | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…1f57backed Over | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed Over | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…c912backed Over | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…7b2ebacked Over | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…a337backed Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…bcb1backed Over | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed Over | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5b7dbacked Over | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Over | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Over | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…0c60backed Over | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…47f8backed Over | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…e5bfbacked Over | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…b8dabacked Over | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…7893backed Over | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…dc55backed Over | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…b898backed Over | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Over | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Birmingham City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Birmingham City FC vs. Derby County FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Birmingham City FC (-1.5)Derby County FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.