Premier League · resolved market
Birmingham City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0a0a7cf5d7483575b3f09893913ca9c1fa17df91005e3df8726804dc389dd51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 16c | 1,161$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.04 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 20c | 900.77$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.8 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 10c | 533.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 742 | 56.9%422 W · 320 L | +46.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 11c | 506.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 76c | 358.33$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 74c | 250.33$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 78c | 157$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 20c | 151.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 78c | 148$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Under | 78c | 146$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 78c | 139$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Under | 78c | 118$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Under | 78c | 108$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed Under | 78c | 106$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Under | 78c | 93$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Over | 22c | 84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.9wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Under | 78c | 81$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Under | 78c | 81$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 78c | 76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Under | 78c | 71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Over | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Over | 24c | 59.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 108 | 20.4%22 W · 86 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…614cbacked Over | 22c | 58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…dce6backed Under | 78c | 57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Under | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Under | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Over | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…6746backed Over | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…53f7backed Over | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Over | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed Over | 22c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…e4e5backed Over | 22c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Over | 22c | 47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9874…15d7backed Over | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Under | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 78c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Under | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 76c | 22.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 271 | 73.8%200 W · 71 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 76cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Birmingham City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Birmingham City FC vs. Derby County FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Birmingham City FC (-1.5)Derby County FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.