Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Vaduz win on 2026-07-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0470e18924ec840369da392d343dd6e072a588fe0046ffec2acb8d07990226c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdc1…bdd8backed No | 41c | 16,267$6,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,666 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 58c | 11,925$6,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,961.91 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4956…e2c7backed No | 42c | 10,000$4,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,174.57 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef04…f6e3backed Yes | 80c | 4,880$3,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.31 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 59c | 4,094$2,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,682.72 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 21c | 4,048$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.23 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 60c | 3,700$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,479.99 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8930…db72backed Yes | 70c | 2,888$2,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…4040backed No | 10c | 2,064$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.63 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 30c | 1,344$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.42 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 23c | 1,311$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.48 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 60c | 1,202$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.81 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed No | 40c | 1,190$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.09 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 77c | 1,055$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.98 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Yes | 60c | 740.94$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.37 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Yes | 58c | 724$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.04 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 60c | 531.75$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.24 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Yes | 79c | 316.45$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.45 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed Yes | 59c | 301.98$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.42 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 40c | 298.33$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.33 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 5c | 275.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96bd…ff97backed Yes | 78c | 259.98$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…e279backed Yes | 64c | 222.87$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.12 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 59c | 212.14$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 58c | 190.44$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.98 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Yes | 60c | 188.38$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 19c | 180.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Yes | 60c | 163.38$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 58c | 154$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Yes | 59c | 145$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed No | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 60c | 117.76$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed No | 31c | 111.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 158 | 28.5%45 W · 113 L | -18.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked No | 23c | 96.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 149 | 31.5%47 W · 102 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ab…097cbacked No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…9fc9backed Yes | 58c | 86.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e69…074bbacked Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…9fbabacked No | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 22c | 76.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 19c | 74.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 202 | 44.6%90 W · 112 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Yes | 73c | 73.27$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf484…e79cbacked Yes | 79c | 61.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked Yes | 61c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Yes | 60c | 50.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 39c | 48.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9254…ca8fbacked No | 38c | 46.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes | 58c | 39.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 171 | 53.8%92 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 61c | 38.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3113backed Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 60c | 34.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ed…dda6backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Yes | 59c | 33.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4d…448fbacked Yes | 59c | 25.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes | 59c | 20.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Yes | 59c | 20.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…23fbbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…64fdbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -7.5wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Yes | 60c | 19.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Vaduz win on 2026-07-30?this page
- Will Atlétic Club d'Escaldes vs. FC Vaduz end in a draw?No won
- Will Atlétic Club d'Escaldes win on 2026-07-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.