NHL · resolved market
Spread: Ducks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x047c6c6b3dcec00ca4250897294e303be62acc0c9c7872fc9f3402cd14aa4538
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ducksof Ducks, Blackhawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef54…d1eebacked Blackhawks | 60c | 85,763$51,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,396.32 | 177 | 49.2%87 W · 90 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Ducks | 40c | 50,999$20,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,599.4 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Ducks | 40c | 21,000$8,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,570 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Ducks | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ducks | 40c | 4,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Ducks | 40c | 3,190$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,913.77 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ducks | 40c | 1,853$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.7 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Blackhawks | 57c | 1,835$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.88 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Ducks | 43c | 1,814$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.95 | 269 | 46.1%124 W · 145 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Ducks | 42c | 1,691$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.65 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Ducks | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Ducks | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 222 | 48.2%107 W · 115 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Ducks | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…cf61backed Blackhawks | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 130 | 60%78 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…db4bbacked Blackhawks | 60c | 150.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.06 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Ducks | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Ducks | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Ducks | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Ducks | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Ducks | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Ducks | 40c | 54.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Ducks | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Ducks | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Ducks | 40c | 47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Blackhawks | 58c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Ducks | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Ducks | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 216 | 48.1%104 W · 112 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Ducks | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 175 | 52%91 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Ducks | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Ducks | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Ducks | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Ducks | 41c | 33.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 310 | 47.4%147 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Blackhawks | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Ducks | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 264 | 48.9%129 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…d318backed Blackhawks | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Ducks | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Ducks | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Blackhawks | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Ducks | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)this page
- Blackhawks vs. DucksDucks won
- Blackhawks vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.