Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x048750aa78f01b30fcc043829bd26bd0ec4ad25adaf0c28b9ad3704b1ef8c8d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 22c | 1,593$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.52 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 733.24$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0679…76a0backed No | 2c | 510$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 60c | 386.42$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.7 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 328.13$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 310.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 32c | 187.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 10c | 161.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.55 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 39c | 156.09$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 154.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 38c | 143.77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 25c | 140.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 18c | 135.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.81 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 130.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 126.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 18c | 120.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 52c | 109.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 71c | 105.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.69 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 85.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.91 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 54c | 80.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 26c | 73.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.61 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 72c | 67.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 76c | 63.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 21c | 60.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95d…7fbcbacked Yes | 41c | 58.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 26c | 57.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 76c | 48.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 21c | 47.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 46c | 43.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 42c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 53c | 27.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf444…8d4abacked No | 72c | 27.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 45c | 22.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 78c | 21.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…c58bbacked No | 59c | 20.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3466…6db5backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 58c | 17.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 69c | 16.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C or higher on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.