Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c8a4e619be41e8e90dbbe88bf304462a003d283136bff9e490425f65f1993c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 401.04$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 51c | 266.19$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.24 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 37c | 123.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 46c | 105$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef1…5c6dbacked Yes | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218d…fa00backed Yes | 42c | 86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 59c | 84.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 56c | 82.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 60c | 80.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 46c | 64.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 61.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…bdbabacked Yes | 55c | 50.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 40c | 50.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 46.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 44c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 55c | 33.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 32.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 51c | 28.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 58c | 27.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 71c | 27.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 43 | 81.4%35 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…6136backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 52c | 26.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 41c | 25.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 25.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 68c | 23.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 22.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 48c | 21.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 48c | 20.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3466…6db5backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 68c | 18.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C or higher on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.