NBA · resolved market
Will Marc Gasol make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0493c645800983c5ff2a6005680e3efb0a9c27b562716c8d58927c44fd14c52f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $159,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x561d…4912backed Yes | 0c | 69,211$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…76ccbacked Yes | 3c | 679$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +961.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f3…3c21backed Yes | 3c | 490.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf645…b8c2backed Yes | 13c | 350$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd64a…2fa2backed Yes | 10c | 320$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 156 | 40.4%63 W · 93 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…031abacked No | 72c | 247$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4f…0d85backed Yes | 28c | 193$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab3…396ebacked Yes | 28c | 161$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80af…1893backed Yes | 26c | 156$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2771…c8a9backed No | 74c | 116$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…3120backed No | 72c | 107$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd897…218ebacked Yes | 26c | 95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 41c | 90.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63c9…ef9cbacked No | 52c | 78.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39bf…a88dbacked Yes | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b35…d221backed Yes | 26c | 72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ae…60c4backed No | 74c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379d…54efbacked No | 45c | 61.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +3,796.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd365…7e7abacked Yes | 25c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7c…932dbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cf…865cbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 29cpaid | +256.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 55c | 38.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeea…8921backed No | 74c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb559…4dd0backed No | 40c | 37.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…ab79backed Yes | 75c | 37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde4…4cc7backed No | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 63c | 35.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc3…b736backed Yes | 75c | 34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…a2a6backed No | 74c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5370…f0f0backed No | 74c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…baacbacked Yes | 75c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 67cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…d1dabacked Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd989…144cbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6c…efd8backed No | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c69…387fbacked Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…ce7dbacked No | 45c | 27.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f51…8ae7backed Yes | 56c | 26.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1229…6113backed No | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b54…3ffdbacked No | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…1bd4backed Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…183ebacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…2eefbacked Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…5e88backed Yes | 57c | 21.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa3…79d3backed Yes | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4120…83e2backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb87…d49abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x465d…0c77backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b48…acaabacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Marc Gasol make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame?this page
- Will Billy Donovan make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame?Yes won
- Will Carmelo Anthony make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame?Yes won
- Will Doc Rivers make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame?No won
- Will Dwight Howard make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame?Yes won
- Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame?No won
- Will Maya Moore make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame?Yes won
- Will Micky Arison make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame?Yes won
- Will Sue Bird make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.