NHL · resolved market
KHL: Metallurg Magnitogorsk vs. Ak Bars Kazan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04aa70a87b34bd6028cc075342d0eda2d0f91b964fde657837409318a7cfff7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ak Bars Kazanof Metallurg Magnitogorsk, Ak Bars Kazan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9807…157bbacked Ak Bars Kazan | 43c | 929.95$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.07 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 2c | 606$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4c…2a53backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 57c | 491.23$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.37per pick | 45cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 31c | 356.41$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.49 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…a3bebacked Ak Bars Kazan | 45c | 354.96$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.96 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 25c | 294.68$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.49 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 55c | 239$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.45 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65c…9a48backed Ak Bars Kazan | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ak Bars Kazan | 51c | 204.96$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.53 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Ak Bars Kazan | 45c | 166.68$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.1 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 43c | 121.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Ak Bars Kazan | 43c | 120.02$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 39c | 119$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 56c | 103.61$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Ak Bars Kazan | 59c | 100.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 47c | 99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…ad93backed Ak Bars Kazan | 61c | 66.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +10.8wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 57c | 64.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3c…9320backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Ak Bars Kazan | 63c | 63.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 305 | 49.2%150 W · 155 L | -14.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 996 | 38.2%380 W · 616 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Ak Bars Kazan | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x462f…cbd6backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 57c | 47.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Ak Bars Kazan | 52c | 44.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 54c | 43.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 56c | 39.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 51c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 45c | 36.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7818…fde8backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 45c | 35.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a7…50adbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 56c | 26.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 159 | 44.7%71 W · 88 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 58c | 25.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 48c | 24.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 227 | 28.2%64 W · 163 L | -17.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 45c | 22.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.