MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04c19d1e36ca6e5765aff86a52c7ee8c38cae214af2b13e183d56ecdb35209b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Cincinnati Reds, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5be…7c6ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 17,185$8,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,100 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 12,549$7,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,382.06 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 2,408$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.08 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 2,066$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.63 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 1,980$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.64 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Miami Marlins | 48c | 1,910$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.2 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 1,724$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.25 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 1,712$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.79 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 1,655$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.35 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Miami Marlins | 51c | 1,464$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.37 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 1,447$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 1,000$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Miami Marlins | 47c | 758.72$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.24 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 636.36$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4074…7d83backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 636.36$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Cincinnati Reds | 29c | 604.23$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.23 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Miami Marlins | 71c | 604.23$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.23 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Cincinnati Reds | 23c | 356.34$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.31 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 337.34$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.42 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 331.84$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.89 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 326.49$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.53 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Miami Marlins | 46c | 257.8$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.21 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 226.53$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.27 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Miami Marlins | 47c | 212.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.87 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…d23bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 127$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 406 | 29.1%118 W · 288 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Miami Marlins | 54c | 106$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 106$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 80.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Miami Marlins | 48c | 74.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 72.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 46.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 41.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 35.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Miami Marlins | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.