NFL · resolved market

Spread: Browns (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04e5e96a76af338ec33a9946250df7ec54157861cb8bf15126b94fbb71a0e08b

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Brownsof Browns, Dolphins
Resolved: Oct 19, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $67,386
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $87,495

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,386 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe895…c3dabacked Browns	41c	20,000$8,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,800	50	48%24 W · 26 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Dolphins	59c	15,000$8,900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,900	116	49.1%57 W · 59 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Browns	52c	12,225$6,361 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,863.73	477	38.6%184 W · 293 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Dolphins	59c	6,066$3,552 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,552.12	611	48.6%297 W · 314 L	+10.7wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf800…f62dbacked Dolphins	59c	5,571$3,287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,286.83	53	58.5%31 W · 22 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Dolphins	59c	4,845$2,865 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,864.93	1,196	49.9%597 W · 599 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Dolphins	58c	3,916$2,263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,263.38	259	56.8%147 W · 112 L	+14.8wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Browns	40c	3,200$1,280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,919.83	106	50.9%54 W · 52 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Browns	40c	3,157$1,263 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,894.03	358	48.6%174 W · 184 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Dolphins	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	647	47.3%306 W · 341 L	+42.5wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+56.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Dolphins	55c	1,073$590 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$590.15	419	47.3%198 W · 221 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Browns	40c	1,050$420 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$630	284	47.5%135 W · 149 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Dolphins	58c	1,021$592 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$592.06	834	47.1%393 W · 441 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Browns	40c	618.61$248 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$371.03	313	50.2%157 W · 156 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Dolphins	59c	480$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.2	244	56.6%138 W · 106 L	+17.3wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+17%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Dolphins	58c	273$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.34	513	52.2%268 W · 245 L	+16.0wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Dolphins	58c	224.14$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	280	47.5%133 W · 147 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Dolphins	60c	200$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	158	51.9%82 W · 76 L	+6.5wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Dolphins	58c	140$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.2	594	53.7%319 W · 275 L	+24.2wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Dolphins	59c	137.05$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.83	412	48.5%200 W · 212 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Dolphins	60c	133.33$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	127	55.1%70 W · 57 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Browns	39c	86.97$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.05	831	47.8%397 W · 434 L	+13.7wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Dolphins	58c	86.2$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	28	50%14 W · 14 L	-2.7wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9e4…24c2backed Dolphins	61c	81.97$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	91	51.6%47 W · 44 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Browns	41c	62$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.28	414	50.5%209 W · 205 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Dolphins	57c	36$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.52	176	48.9%86 W · 90 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0011…74f0backed Dolphins	57c	35$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.95	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	-7.0wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf998…7b41backed Dolphins	60c	33.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-3.4wins	-0.31per pick	59cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Browns (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event