NFL · resolved market
Dolphins vs. Browns: O/U 38.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafb4775f104cb49195c3fc3da8c6539ad88892c4539d03b4b294e477e0e2e93e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Under | 60c | 82,525$49,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,399.94 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 41c | 30,200$12,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,480.2 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 40c | 21,424$8,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,564.24 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 41c | 14,291$5,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,854.1 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 41c | 7,798$3,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,216.64 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 41c | 4,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Over | 39c | 3,500$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Over | 39c | 3,500$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63af…0a25backed Over | 39c | 3,500$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Over | 40c | 3,000$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Over | 39c | 2,500$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…293ebacked Over | 40c | 1,500$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…e2c4backed Over | 40c | 1,500$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 41c | 1,400$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 40c | 1,383$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 41c | 1,306$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.93 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Over | 40c | 1,120$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.9 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 38c | 739.47$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.98 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 41c | 479.72$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.67 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Over | 44c | 450.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 41c | 278$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.66 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…b17abacked Under | 60c | 216.67$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Over | 41c | 182.29$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Over | 40c | 171.39$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed Under | 60c | 82.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…4e5bbacked Under | 62c | 40.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…534cbacked Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 38c | 28.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebd3…c5f4backed Under | 59c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96e4…f323backed Under | 64c | 25.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dolphins vs. Browns: O/U 38.5this page
- Dolphins vs. BrownsBrowns won
- Dolphins vs. Browns: O/U 34.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Browns: O/U 35.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Browns: O/U 36.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Browns: O/U 37.5Under won
- Dolphins vs. Browns: O/U 39.5Under won
- Dolphins vs. Browns: O/U 40.5Under won
- Dolphins vs. Browns: O/U 41.5Under won
- Dolphins vs. Browns: O/U 42.5Under won
- Spread: Browns (-1.5)Browns won
- Spread: Browns (-2.5)Browns won
- Spread: Browns (-3.5)Browns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.