NFL · resolved market
Spread: Browns (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a4f3d3756f31cb88f54cdab7c36cac9ab15fca5a104562b52094dd1d9780476
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brownsof Browns, Dolphins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1496…a429backed Browns | 51c | 23,288$11,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,410.91 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Dolphins | 47c | 22,632$10,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,667.48 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Browns | 53c | 20,000$10,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,400 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Dolphins | 49c | 19,000$9,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,310 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Dolphins | 49c | 11,204$5,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,479.04 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Browns | 50c | 11,000$5,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,500 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Dolphins | 50c | 7,864$3,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,931.92 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Dolphins | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,940 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Dolphins | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Browns | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Browns | 51c | 3,627$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,777.23 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Browns | 50c | 2,956$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Dolphins | 49c | 2,787$1,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,376.06 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Browns | 51c | 2,500$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Browns | 52c | 2,189$1,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.98 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f78…1dcabacked Dolphins | 49c | 2,013$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Browns | 51c | 2,000$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b08…6b44backed Dolphins | 49c | 1,991$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3113…4b67backed Browns | 51c | 1,991$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Browns | 52c | 1,924$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Browns | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11c1…c166backed Browns | 51c | 1,911$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Browns | 50c | 1,894$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.84 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Dolphins | 48c | 1,890$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.84 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Browns | 52c | 1,567$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.15 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Browns | 51c | 1,228$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.55 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Dolphins | 51c | 1,010$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.1 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Dolphins | 50c | 829.22$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.81 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…423fbacked Browns | 51c | 780$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.2 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Browns | 80c | 720.65$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.65 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Browns | 51c | 408.15$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.99 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Browns | 52c | 340.65$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.51 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Browns | 52c | 268.78$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.01 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Browns | 52c | 234.62$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.62 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Browns | 52c | 211.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Dolphins | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Browns | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1498…a10bbacked Browns | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Browns | 55c | 175$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Dolphins | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…ab9dbacked Dolphins | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63af…0a25backed Browns | 50c | 132.52$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Browns | 80c | 111.35$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed Browns | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Browns | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Browns | 51c | 97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Dolphins | 53c | 85.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7118…f6adbacked Browns | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…fa4ebacked Dolphins | 49c | 82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Browns | 53c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Dolphins | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee8…b7b6backed Browns | 52c | 69.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Dolphins | 21c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Browns | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Dolphins | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Browns | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Dolphins | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Browns | 51c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Browns | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fe…73a4backed Browns | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Browns | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…68eebacked Browns | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Browns | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…2103backed Browns | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe834…6407backed Dolphins | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Browns (-2.5)this page
- Dolphins vs. BrownsBrowns won
- Dolphins vs. Browns: O/U 34.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Browns: O/U 35.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Browns: O/U 36.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Browns: O/U 37.5Under won
- Dolphins vs. Browns: O/U 38.5Under won
- Dolphins vs. Browns: O/U 39.5Under won
- Dolphins vs. Browns: O/U 40.5Under won
- Dolphins vs. Browns: O/U 41.5Under won
- Dolphins vs. Browns: O/U 42.5Under won
- Spread: Browns (-1.5)Browns won
- Spread: Browns (-3.5)Browns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.