La Liga · resolved market
FC Andorra vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04e8da421e5b7c238aa31d78c0748000dd1d7c85f7ddc8d108d7ca4c43bd2f30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 41c | 6,552$2,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,686.41 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 57c | 4,354$2,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,876.66 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Under | 39c | 3,070$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.11 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 59c | 2,073$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.65 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 60c | 2,014$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.17 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 59c | 943.97$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.95 | 834 | 44.6%372 W · 462 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 59c | 935.95$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.74 | 417 | 51.8%216 W · 201 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 44c | 766.05$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.99 | 839 | 39.8%334 W · 505 L | -21.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 46c | 685.26$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.4 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b34…a646backed Under | 63c | 300.29$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 50c | 260.07$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.02 | 999 | 33.4%334 W · 665 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 48c | 195.91$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 192 | 47.4%91 W · 101 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 51c | 177.28$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.06 | 1,419 | 45.6%647 W · 772 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 59c | 164.34$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.85 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…7138backed Over | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9c…601abacked Over | 41c | 82.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f03…8a0dbacked Under | 47c | 80.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…bd60backed Under | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed Over | 45c | 64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Over | 59c | 64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 340 | 50%170 W · 170 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 40c | 49.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 48c | 49.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 48c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 59c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 59c | 39.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 59c | 39.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Over | 55c | 36.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 59c | 30.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Over | 60c | 16.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Andorra vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Andorra vs. AD Ceuta FC: AD Ceuta FC O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Andorra vs. AD Ceuta FC: AD Ceuta FC O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Andorra vs. AD Ceuta FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Andorra vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Andorra vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Andorra vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Andorra vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- FC Andorra vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: AD Ceuta FC (-1.5)FC Andorra won
- Spread: FC Andorra (-1.5)FC Andorra won
- Spread: FC Andorra (-2.5)FC Andorra won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.