South American Leagues · resolved market
Will SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x050c9194db881e5f6e83745c2c1b19f91ff810ee38ac8828f47b270c425303fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a11…eb9dbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.81 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 67c | 2,007$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.73 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 18c | 890.45$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.28 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x319f…500bbacked Yes | 40c | 756.25$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…478fbacked Yes | 33c | 666.67$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…0ac5backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 16c | 413.51$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 17c | 344.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 1,945 | 51.3%998 W · 947 L | +40.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 75c | 299$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.72 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 123 | 31.7%39 W · 84 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…19abbacked Yes | 19c | 285.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 80c | 251.72$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c1…22e4backed Yes | 30c | 197.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 32c | 178.52$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 80 | 26.3%21 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b3…7650backed No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 71c | 149.78$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde4d…df45backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +44%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x268c…19aabacked Yes | 36c | 140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…0163backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 13c | 131.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 66c | 123.28$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 250 | 44%110 W · 140 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…f810backed Yes | 31c | 117$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…ffcabacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Yes | 18c | 110.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 145 | 35.9%52 W · 93 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…9430backed No | 70c | 106.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 26c | 84.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…9db1backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 76c | 76.32$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef6…c061backed Yes | 31c | 64.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 68c | 58.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf6…0e3bbacked Yes | 32c | 51.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e30…5629backed Yes | 28c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…d22dbacked Yes | 26c | 40.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0591…4247backed Yes | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 34c | 31.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1,296 | 43%557 W · 739 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7993…cc43backed No | 75c | 29.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 75c | 18.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 258 | 66.3%171 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 72c | 14.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño end in a draw?this page
- Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-05-20?Yes won
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.