South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-05-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a73822bd6b70e3a4497892dc41f96edd3bc4b4379a7afaf9d39723d718b2d67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 34c | 40,000$13,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,599.94 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 60c | 16,864$10,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,806.65 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 54c | 15,133$8,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,921.89 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 8c | 9,682$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,907.17 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | +13.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 79c | 9,596$7,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,975.18 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e4…4f8abacked No | 30c | 3,280$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 8c | 3,150$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,897.95 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed No | 65c | 1,538$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 62c | 1,227$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…81afbacked Yes | 74c | 1,214$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.63 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…7a1bbacked Yes | 9c | 833.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.33 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 28c | 813.81$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.54 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…e517backed Yes | 52c | 579.01$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.01 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…9460backed Yes | 8c | 437.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.5 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 53c | 421.85$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.59 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…7e93backed Yes | 68c | 382.7$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.56 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Yes | 68c | 322.76$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked Yes | 11c | 316.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.22 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaef6…c061backed Yes | 32c | 283.33$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…0a8dbacked Yes | 7c | 269.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.03 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Yes | 64c | 220.08$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.73 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…9e1cbacked Yes | 72c | 219.68$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 85 | 69.4%59 W · 26 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 7c | 212.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.87 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…88dbbacked No | 38c | 211.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 11c | 207.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 40c | 199.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 250 | 44%110 W · 140 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Yes | 61c | 182$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked No | 13c | 178.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 10c | 176.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.64 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcb…f3afbacked Yes | 74c | 164.39$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…4debbacked No | 59c | 163.04$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 17c | 143.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32de…6253backed Yes | 7c | 143$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.99 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Yes | 58c | 136.08$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 192 | 64.1%123 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Yes | 74c | 135.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 23c | 108.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 41c | 105.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed No | 52c | 101.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc115…9138backed Yes | 55c | 101.07$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 186 | 31.2%58 W · 128 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 59c | 96.54$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed No | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4e…12aebacked No | 17c | 93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x967b…46babacked No | 41c | 84.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d91…6816backed No | 13c | 83.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 32c | 83.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed No | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…a3f4backed Yes | 40c | 61.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab77…be6abacked Yes | 73c | 54.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70f7…d7debacked No | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf80f…34a9backed Yes | 44c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 76c | 44.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Yes | 62c | 41.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51d5…41b8backed Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Yes | 67c | 39.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Yes | 64c | 35.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Yes | 61c | 32.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1833…cc31backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d9…55aebacked Yes | 63c | 31.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Yes | 55c | 31.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Yes | 50c | 24.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Yes | 56c | 24.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Yes | 62c | 22.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33a…d47abacked No | 66c | 21.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Yes | 70c | 20.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-05-20?this page
- Will SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño end in a draw?No won
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.