TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

New Mexico State Aggies vs. Missouri State Bears

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Missouri State Bearsof New Mexico State Aggies, Missouri State Bears
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,376
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,949

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,376 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd7b6…31e9backed Missouri State Bears54c3,490$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.653964.1%25 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked New Mexico State Aggies46c2,032$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.9512,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed New Mexico State Aggies4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8046446.8%217 W · 247 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Missouri State Bears73c1,953$1,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.393,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x20ae…f107backed New Mexico State Aggies31c1,165$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36042327.2%115 W · 308 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed New Mexico State Aggies48c855$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.42,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Missouri State Bears52c749.19$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.671,39144.1%613 W · 778 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked New Mexico State Aggies40c539.19$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.414,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked New Mexico State Aggies24c363.51$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.311,17325.2%296 W · 877 L-43.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked New Mexico State Aggies15c300.71$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.91,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked New Mexico State Aggies32c277.08$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.954,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed New Mexico State Aggies19c256.92$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.663,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b2…1c67backed Missouri State Bears80c189$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.814354.5%78 W · 65 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Missouri State Bears64c156.88$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8840252.7%212 W · 190 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New Mexico State Aggies46c141$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.865,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x65f6…8333backed New Mexico State Aggies20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+81.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed New Mexico State Aggies17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1764322.9%147 W · 496 L-17.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked New Mexico State Aggies42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4234649.1%170 W · 176 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b1…e904backed Missouri State Bears47c88$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.641936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed New Mexico State Aggies48c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.41,07046.9%502 W · 568 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed New Mexico State Aggies53c75.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.093,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24d8…e8a8backed Missouri State Bears74c67.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8112354.5%67 W · 56 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f19…325ebacked New Mexico State Aggies31c66.69$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.671540%6 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Missouri State Bears70c59.2$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.582,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4595…14ebbacked Missouri State Bears75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d08…9e8dbacked New Mexico State Aggies52c49.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263129%9 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-47.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x934f…f3b8backed Missouri State Bears79c49.51$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-41.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf702…7cc8backed New Mexico State Aggies37c48.21$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1817544%77 W · 98 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-25.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New Mexico State Aggies46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafe7…8b77backed New Mexico State Aggies48c41.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.826558.5%38 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed New Mexico State Aggies47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.849043.1%211 W · 279 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d84…6df0backed New Mexico State Aggies48c38.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2753646.5%249 W · 287 L-24.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Missouri State Bears54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.044,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed New Mexico State Aggies34c36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2249747.5%236 W · 261 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Missouri State Bears61c33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.981,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaad7…5557backed New Mexico State Aggies47c30.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4611536.5%42 W · 73 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Missouri State Bears48c27.56$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.332,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa22f…604cbacked Missouri State Bears61c24.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.594070%28 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.