Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Missouri State Bears
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x051d538c74ddd92cfc8689755701f4f4713f8cd0841eef6822292f5b9fafb46a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Missouri State Bearsof New Mexico State Aggies, Missouri State Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7b6…31e9backed Missouri State Bears | 54c | 3,490$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,589.65 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked New Mexico State Aggies | 46c | 2,032$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.95 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…ed44backed New Mexico State Aggies | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 464 | 46.8%217 W · 247 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Missouri State Bears | 73c | 1,953$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.39 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ae…f107backed New Mexico State Aggies | 31c | 1,165$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 423 | 27.2%115 W · 308 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed New Mexico State Aggies | 48c | 855$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.4 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Missouri State Bears | 52c | 749.19$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.67 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked New Mexico State Aggies | 40c | 539.19$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.41 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked New Mexico State Aggies | 24c | 363.51$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.31 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked New Mexico State Aggies | 15c | 300.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked New Mexico State Aggies | 32c | 277.08$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.95 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed New Mexico State Aggies | 19c | 256.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b2…1c67backed Missouri State Bears | 80c | 189$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 143 | 54.5%78 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Missouri State Bears | 64c | 156.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 402 | 52.7%212 W · 190 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New Mexico State Aggies | 46c | 141$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…8333backed New Mexico State Aggies | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed New Mexico State Aggies | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked New Mexico State Aggies | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 346 | 49.1%170 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Missouri State Bears | 47c | 88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed New Mexico State Aggies | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed New Mexico State Aggies | 53c | 75.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Missouri State Bears | 74c | 67.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…325ebacked New Mexico State Aggies | 31c | 66.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Missouri State Bears | 70c | 59.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4595…14ebbacked Missouri State Bears | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d08…9e8dbacked New Mexico State Aggies | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…f3b8backed Missouri State Bears | 79c | 49.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf702…7cc8backed New Mexico State Aggies | 37c | 48.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 175 | 44%77 W · 98 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New Mexico State Aggies | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe7…8b77backed New Mexico State Aggies | 48c | 41.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed New Mexico State Aggies | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 490 | 43.1%211 W · 279 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed New Mexico State Aggies | 48c | 38.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 536 | 46.5%249 W · 287 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Missouri State Bears | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed New Mexico State Aggies | 34c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 497 | 47.5%236 W · 261 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Missouri State Bears | 61c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed New Mexico State Aggies | 47c | 30.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 115 | 36.5%42 W · 73 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Missouri State Bears | 48c | 27.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…604cbacked Missouri State Bears | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New Mexico State Aggies vs. Missouri State Bearsthis page
- New Mexico State Aggies vs. Missouri State Bears: O/U 133.5Over won
- Spread: New Mexico State Aggies (-1.5)Missouri State Bears won
- Spread: New Mexico State Aggies (-2.5)Missouri State Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.