TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

VfL Wolfsburg vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$174,276
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$191,125

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,276 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Under50c114,877$57,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,359.011947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over50c55,000$27,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,5001,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over50c17,190$8,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,594.9778248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over50c15,344$7,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,640.2875142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under47c13,704$6,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,425.953,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over52c9,999$5,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,802.8833244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over52c9,999$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,799.5744749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked Over52c8,000$4,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8401752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over50c5,270$2,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,622.552,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Under48c3,697$1,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,774.465052%26 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Over50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5003762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6e7…caa8backed Under2c2,100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52244.2%1 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-54.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over54c1,852$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.8518759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa99f…9c1ebacked Under2c1,800$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Under49c1,189$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.8119544.6%87 W · 108 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f12…70d4backed Over51c1,025$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.732650%13 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4003158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4008764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked Under49c620$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.85635.7%20 W · 36 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x16e6…dc3dbacked Over52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.62837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed Over51c299.98$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.992661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa7b7…0adbbacked Under49c239$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.936154.1%33 W · 28 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Over53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948248.8%40 W · 42 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10022854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10015454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over52c196.36$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.2533340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a9b…f4edbacked Over54c194.44$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.442755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Over51c189.34$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.7810642.5%45 W · 61 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd628…c85dbacked Over78c165$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.591241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Over50c160$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808864.8%57 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Over50c160$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8014355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x187b…f545backed Under48c143$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.33951.3%20 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Over50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6013957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6012162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6025659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3459…808abacked Under18c105.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195621.4%12 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Over51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494639.1%18 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Over51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494141.5%17 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9242…60babacked Over52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Under49c98.04$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.049350.5%47 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x265b…74dfbacked Over51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.04250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3411060%66 W · 44 L+13.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0bd4…49b7backed Over53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.346451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd235…6eebbacked Over52c90.38$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3811943.7%52 W · 67 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Over50c82.96$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4513859.4%82 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf37c…3c74backed Under30c81.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.45425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x884d…1da6backed Over70c81.5$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.453461.8%21 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Over50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4011458.8%67 W · 47 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406556.9%37 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Over50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4011259.8%67 W · 45 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4012458.9%73 W · 51 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Over50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Over50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4010360.2%62 W · 41 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Over50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4012757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Over50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4012358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Over50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406959.4%41 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Over50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4012858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Over50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4011563.5%73 W · 42 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7175…08f1backed Under29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under20c59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5938151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c06…84a9backed Over52c57.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+69.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over50c55.06$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5310040%40 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Over52c43.66$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.912748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa383…a2f0backed Over56c43$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.19145.1%41 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d61…d43cbacked Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202673.1%19 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+31.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+19.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2012259%72 W · 50 L+11.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208261%50 W · 32 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205957.6%34 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206162.3%38 W · 23 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206464.1%41 W · 23 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+26%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2011759.8%70 W · 47 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2012657.9%73 W · 53 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2012356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206259.7%37 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2013254.5%72 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205558.2%32 W · 23 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209159.3%54 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x778e…ccd1backed Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209265.2%60 W · 32 L+13.8wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+32.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under49c39.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3410150.5%51 W · 50 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed Under48c37.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.155547.3%26 W · 29 L-5.9wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-22.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x16ce…b3dcbacked Over53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.744261.9%26 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd99e…b859backed Over53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.741163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83fc…13ccbacked Over52c37.15$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.831154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f21…dc40backed Over54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.04933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-44.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb8ab…f5c1backed Over49c36.16$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.44580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeedf…1483backed Over52c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.43852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over52c29.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.47541.3%31 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over53c29.43$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.837867.9%53 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf187…b390backed Over53c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97c3…b479backed Over50c23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.52218.2%4 W · 18 L-5.4wins-0.24per pick43cpaid-69%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Over51c22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.781952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdaf…7556backed Over51c21.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.571442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a9…22c4backed Over77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.62365.2%15 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.