Tennis · resolved market
Pan Pacific Open: Victoria Mboko vs Elena Rybakina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05467f2c0050e773fbfb02f6f3657e7fd83907a45aaac9e24b16f5b977560b42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rybakinaof Mboko, Rybakina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e6f…ffaabacked Rybakina | 73c | 5,300$3,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,405 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Mboko | 22c | 4,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.99 | 198 | 35.4%70 W · 128 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Mboko | 18c | 3,877$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.43 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Mboko | 10c | 3,599$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.92 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed Mboko | 10c | 1,876$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.31 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23b…24f9backed Mboko | 17c | 1,798$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.21 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Mboko | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Mboko | 10c | 1,029$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.56 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mboko | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Rybakina | 75c | 729.58$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.39 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Mboko | 23c | 379.14$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Rybakina | 78c | 300.44$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 236 | 70.8%167 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Mboko | 23c | 276$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mboko | 10c | 179.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Mboko | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Mboko | 19c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75d…9d01backed Mboko | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mboko | 22c | 140.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Mboko | 22c | 100.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Rybakina | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…9868backed Rybakina | 77c | 84.45$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…efe0backed Rybakina | 78c | 76.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…303dbacked Mboko | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85fb…7c3abacked Rybakina | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc256…aba2backed Rybakina | 79c | 57.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Mboko | 22c | 55.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Mboko | 22c | 55.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a29…c0b6backed Rybakina | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Rybakina | 78c | 41.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed Rybakina | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c61…5213backed Rybakina | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Rybakina | 78c | 37.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…9c2fbacked Rybakina | 78c | 32.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf4…a478backed Rybakina | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa905…fcf1backed Rybakina | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Rybakina | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…5d1bbacked Rybakina | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3412…3a3cbacked Rybakina | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x598f…44c4backed Rybakina | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Rybakina | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.