TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Celtics (-16.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Celticsof Celtics, Heat
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,486
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,192

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,486 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafaf…1635backed Celtics55c966.23$527 inWon+$439.131,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Heat45c527.45$237 inLost-$237.352,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Celtics25c400.95$100 inWon+$300.711,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Celtics41c301.85$124 inWon+$178.1434255.6%190 W · 152 L+28.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Celtics48c272.79$131 inWon+$141.559,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecd5…bcafbacked Heat56c207.93$117 inLost-$116.57540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35b1…8962backed Heat56c202.41$113 inLost-$112.591127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-44.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Heat51c198.02$100 inLost-$100.031,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Celtics50c117.58$59 inWon+$59.033,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Celtics45c116.15$52 inWon+$63.8837848.7%184 W · 194 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Celtics49c67.26$33 inWon+$34.340750.6%206 W · 201 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Celtics49c66.28$32 inWon+$33.849247.2%232 W · 260 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Celtics54c65.08$35 inWon+$29.6857550.3%289 W · 286 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1cc…28a0backed Heat57c34.19$19 inLost-$19.4829665.5%194 W · 102 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Celtics57c34$19 inWon+$14.5252461.6%323 W · 201 L-0.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa1…2c8abacked Heat50c23.28$12 inLost-$11.642055%11 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.