NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d76b10fa79ecc4615dc7e5827ee99d1bcffc09041813412e99cc02268a11afd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea32…8870backed Over | 52c | 4,649$2,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,215.74 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 1,807$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.68 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…699bbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x81ea…8b9abacked Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…186dbacked Under | 49c | 925.24$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.37 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 51c | 729.51$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.46 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Under | 49c | 692.43$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.29 | 219 | 50.2%110 W · 109 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Over | 52c | 660.42$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 52c | 643.54$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.9 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 48c | 383$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.84 | 568 | 43.8%249 W · 319 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Over | 52c | 324.38$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.7 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49f…b0f0backed Under | 49c | 316.38$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…6b1fbacked Under | 52c | 279.99$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x743a…ddcdbacked Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 48c | 156.24$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 136.12$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e70…f06fbacked Under | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 52c | 116.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 51c | 114.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Under | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Under | 48c | 96.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 310 | 46.8%145 W · 165 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 51c | 81.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe193…466ebacked Under | 49c | 71.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 39c | 61.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 51c | 59.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Over | 52c | 57.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Under | 49c | 55.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f3…8279backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 48c | 48.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 648 | 44.8%290 W · 358 L | -32.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 60c | 40.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 575 | 50.3%289 W · 286 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729c…2b1ebacked Under | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Over | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 404 | 40.1%162 W · 242 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 48c | 28.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 48c | 27.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 46c | 26.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 48c | 25.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 48c | 24.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Over | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a5…6bc4backed Over | 52c | 23.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 52c | 23.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Celtics won
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-3.5)Celtics won
- Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Celtics vs. HeatCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Heat: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 228.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 230.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 244.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 245.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 247.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 249.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 250.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 252.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 255.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 256.5Over won
- Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-13.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-14.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-15.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-16.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-18.5)Heat won
- Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.