NFL · resolved market
Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x055c3d2105e674b0b92033b9f5db37043668eb279c1fd743802257e29e4a19d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jaguarsof Jaguars, Panthers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Jaguars | 53c | 11,159$5,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,229.81 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Panthers | 46c | 9,100$4,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,189 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Panthers | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.99 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Panthers | 49c | 2,964$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.52 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Jaguars | 53c | 2,508$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.61 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Jaguars | 55c | 1,777$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.65 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Jaguars | 51c | 1,471$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.58 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Panthers | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Panthers | 45c | 999.99$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Panthers | 48c | 799.95$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.98 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Jaguars | 50c | 657.76$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.03 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…2771backed Jaguars | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Panthers | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.95 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Panthers | 46c | 432$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.8 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Jaguars | 51c | 327.27$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.36 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Panthers | 49c | 325$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.25 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Panthers | 51c | 277$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.27 | 145 | 50.3%73 W · 72 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Jaguars | 53c | 220$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.4 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…968abacked Jaguars | 51c | 212.39$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.07 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Jaguars | 52c | 202.7$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Jaguars | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Jaguars | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead9…cc72backed Panthers | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ec…56f4backed Panthers | 49c | 95.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0c…e263backed Jaguars | 52c | 89.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34e…c317backed Panthers | 49c | 80.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x518a…576bbacked Panthers | 49c | 78.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…b01abacked Jaguars | 52c | 77.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda8a…9c0cbacked Jaguars | 52c | 74.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6a…672bbacked Jaguars | 52c | 69.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8c…02fcbacked Panthers | 49c | 67.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed Panthers | 45c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed Jaguars | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x537d…9950backed Jaguars | 54c | 55.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Jaguars | 53c | 39.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)this page
- Panthers vs. JaguarsJaguars won
- Panthers vs. Jaguars: O/U 46.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.