TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3b6a…672b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
79
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: NHL, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 58 out of 100; worst MLB at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2025, EDT4055%22 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mavericks vs. Spursbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT+222.6%+$60.12
Magic vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$45.54
Pacers vs. Bullsbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.87
Wizards vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$33.43
Cavaliers vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.7
Jazz vs. 76ersbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.37
Suns vs. Mavericksbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT+37%+$48.79
Lakers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EST+44.9%+$45.48
Pelicans vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+33.3%+$17.46
Suns vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+37%+$50.29
Spurs vs. Kingsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$119.39
Trail Blazers vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+72.4%+$85.46
Rockets vs. Pelicansbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST+61.3%+$87.12
Pacers vs. Hawksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$121.19
Thunder vs. Grizzliesbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST+29.9%+$34.85
Pelicans vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST+31.6%+$44.66
Clippers vs. Sunsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST-100%-$22.93
Warriors vs. Knicksbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST+163.2%+$54.14
Raptors vs. Magicbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST+244.8%+$127.16
Hawks vs. Grizzliesbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST+334.8%+$136.89
Wizards vs. Heatbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST-100%-$39.74
Pelicans vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$67.05
Warriors vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+300%+$146.16
Nuggets vs. Bucksbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$134.24
Bucks vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST+66.7%+$29.99
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 10, 2025, EDT1866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+37.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
NHL — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kings vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$111.15
Kraken vs. Capitalsbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.02
Sabres vs. Panthersbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$17.38
Blues vs. Ducksbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+69.5%+$89.61
Ducks vs. Canucksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST+49.3%+$65.31
Blues vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST-100%-$136.59
Maple Leafs vs. Penguinsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+56.3%+$67.58
Oilers vs. Panthersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$46.99
Blues vs. Capitalsbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2025, EST+150%+$29.51
Devils vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2025, EST+85.2%+$88.79
Sweden vs. USAbacked Sweden · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST+185.7%+$84.11
Hurricanes vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2025, EST+122.2%+$54.99
Blues vs. Utahbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+108.9%+$61.62
Predators vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+104.1%+$61.62
Avalanche vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+122.2%+$52.84
Kings vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST+127.3%+$31.39
Canadiens vs. Red Wingsbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$41.18
Panthers vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST+92.3%+$41.51
All 18 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2025, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 13, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-61.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
MLB — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rays vs. Athleticsbacked Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.22
Phillies vs. Redsbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.64
Athletics vs. Nationalsbacked Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.07
Giants vs. Piratesbacked Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.85
Mariners vs. Yankeesbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$39.37
All 5 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2025, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 27-Jan 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+138%+$15.29
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST+108.3%+$33.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bitcoin all time high by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$23.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win La Liga?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$18.17
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.