TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Heat

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Wizards, Heat
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$198,549
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$224,279

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,549 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 277 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ff0…46e3backed Wizards18c43,116$7,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,629.3447656.5%269 W · 207 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Wizards25c17,602$4,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,398.391,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40e3…0787backed Wizards16c12,618$2,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,070.234532.8%113 W · 232 L-16.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Heat75c8,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00028241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Wizards0c6,245$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.378783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Wizards20c5,200$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.9746928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Heat75c5,025$3,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.791,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Heat77c5,000$3,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,148.8996447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Heat75c5,000$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,25029858.7%175 W · 123 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked Heat75c5,000$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,25011443.9%50 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards11c4,347$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.193,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Wizards24c4,005$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.1440627.8%113 W · 293 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Heat75c3,572$2,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.920047%94 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5314…910cbacked Wizards21c3,503$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.6133931.9%108 W · 231 L-28.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-37.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4d34…b76fbacked Heat74c3,000$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.967860.3%47 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f57…cdacbacked Heat76c2,632$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd866…3f85backed Wizards25c2,526$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Wizards1c2,100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167502%15 W · 735 L-3.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Heat79c2,011$1,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.11,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Wizards3c2,010$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.311,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Wizards23c1,886$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.7825845%116 W · 142 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2bd…dce0backed Wizards20c1,792$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.0277745%350 W · 427 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda87…4e9bbacked Wizards26c1,487$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.622015%3 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed Wizards23c1,400$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32212040.8%49 W · 71 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x25f2…edf8backed Wizards25c1,310$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.510643.4%46 W · 60 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Wizards2c1,241$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.275502.5%14 W · 536 L+2.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4cd…0516backed Wizards26c1,150$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.3139843.5%173 W · 225 L-1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadb9…2067backed Heat75c1,067$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.6712941.9%54 W · 75 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x529d…47cfbacked Heat75c1,061$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.252133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-46.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x90b6…1d6bbacked Heat75c1,029$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.3350245.8%230 W · 272 L+2.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ca…d65ebacked Heat76c1,008$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.9725865.5%169 W · 89 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Wizards1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2edf…8475backed Heat75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501070%7 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick45cpaid+68.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7096…e019backed Wizards10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030061.7%185 W · 115 L+23.9wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+25.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad25…7678backed Wizards25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2509038.9%35 W · 55 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c6e…eea6backed Wizards25c999.86$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9640%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Wizards26c900$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23419147.6%91 W · 100 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Wizards9c813.3$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1511719.7%23 W · 94 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ead…cf47backed Wizards26c781.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004050%20 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Wizards20c704.99$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.2385542%359 W · 496 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed Heat79c700$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.561345.5%279 W · 334 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d21…d7cdbacked Wizards25c660$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1651030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dc4…63febacked Heat76c657.75$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.86966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x799c…bcefbacked Heat78c641.03$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.0327163.5%172 W · 99 L+0.9wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Wizards26c636$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.3637627.9%105 W · 271 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224b…d105backed Heat76c627.68$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.647169%49 W · 22 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Heat75c570$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.520153.7%108 W · 93 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a82…4e32backed Wizards25c560$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Wizards5c557.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0525536.9%94 W · 161 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebe7…fbe1backed Wizards23c552.17$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7662…356bbacked Heat76c500.01$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.545743.3%198 W · 259 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Heat77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1151,05353.5%563 W · 490 L-15.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Wizards20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10085347.9%409 W · 444 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Heat78c500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11029148.8%142 W · 149 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Heat76c499.99$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12046342.5%197 W · 266 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Heat79c494.21$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.2188053.8%473 W · 407 L+52.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x44a4…dd6fbacked Heat78c478.21$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+66.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3436…17c5backed Wizards24c459.96$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.392462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd84d…03f0backed Wizards23c434.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Wizards25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10037734%128 W · 249 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Wizards25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10068642.1%289 W · 397 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f8…4d29backed Heat76c395.72$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.971833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ae3…0cb9backed Heat78c384.62$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.622100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Wizards20c383.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7873647.3%348 W · 388 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd15c…e6e4backed Heat80c375$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7511256.3%63 W · 49 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fc4…0bfdbacked Heat74c365.04$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.911457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Wizards19c365$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.351,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89c8…9832backed Heat76c344.04$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.57757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffb8…646dbacked Wizards16c301$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0410720.6%22 W · 85 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb26…94ddbacked Wizards9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710018%18 W · 82 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+30.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x596a…1219backed Heat78c300$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6723658.1%137 W · 99 L+0.7wins0.00per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadbe…bc55backed Heat80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6050453.8%271 W · 233 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x725f…06c2backed Heat75c266.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.671,88837.3%704 W · 1,184 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x348f…e570backed Heat76c265.17$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.641275%9 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x20f3…9cbdbacked Wizards23c256.52$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaec…502abacked Heat78c256.49$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.432100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+164.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b56…8495backed Heat78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.412100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+89.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Wizards21c244.65$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3813929.5%41 W · 98 L+0.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x128a…dc04backed Wizards26c230.77$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6017136.8%63 W · 108 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4531…b46abacked Wizards25c220$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick36cpaid+79%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e6e…5617backed Heat76c217.11$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.11450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8069…be50backed Heat75c213.07$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.27580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcef6…4641backed Wizards24c210$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.410426%27 W · 77 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19e4…6db0backed Wizards24c208$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.926325.4%16 W · 47 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4022…46b6backed Wizards25c205.92$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.484151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ff9…4e59backed Wizards25c202.81$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.845646.4%26 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49f7…046bbacked Heat76c189.1$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.327548%36 W · 39 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Heat77c188.36$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3593036.5%339 W · 591 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf74…6fffbacked Heat77c185.1$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.96858.8%40 W · 28 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb31d…e535backed Wizards24c183.33$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4414652.1%76 W · 70 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+18.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x824e…a9b6backed Wizards25c181.96$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464949%24 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb297…24f0backed Heat77c179.97$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.393560%21 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeba7…f213backed Heat75c176.91$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.233868.4%26 W · 12 L+5.5wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+22.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8b70…788bbacked Wizards24c175$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4214353.8%77 W · 66 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x383b…c4febacked Wizards24c170.83$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4113753.3%73 W · 64 L+10.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+26.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e83…a4a0backed Wizards24c166.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4019038.4%73 W · 117 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9c2…1f15backed Wizards23c166.83$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.374755.3%26 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e87…a5b0backed Heat77c165.92$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.164548.9%22 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c7a…34ebbacked Wizards26c164.88$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.874254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b9a…8f02backed Heat76c163.51$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.244245.2%19 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.