Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05664b81f41c881ee862633f36adcb105bb95351cc8665b9bbeaad60267baacd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,242$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.61 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb851…0dfebacked Yes | 1c | 1,748$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,086$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 852.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 2c | 600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 4c | 505.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 36c | 357.02$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.94 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…36cdbacked Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 38c | 269.96$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.36 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 13c | 265.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 255.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 43c | 231.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 218$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x592d…4b16backed No | 79c | 203$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 179.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 128.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed No | 51c | 102$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 99.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 40c | 85.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 76.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 43c | 74.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 16c | 65.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -11.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…6dabbacked No | 49c | 60.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 49c | 60.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 47c | 58.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…1334backed Yes | 56c | 56.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 55.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…cdc4backed Yes | 55c | 54.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…c50bbacked No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 53c | 50.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b8…cf6cbacked Yes | 39c | 49.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…7f98backed Yes | 36c | 49.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 49.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 47c | 40.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 50c | 37.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 52c | 34.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97bd…f2adbacked No | 66c | 32.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 64c | 31.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…462ebacked No | 52c | 29.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 51c | 26.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 63c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 57c | 23.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 74c | 23.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 64c | 20.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed Yes | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 75c | 15.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.