Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c3484314a3c5777e5dddaaf15117cf4c35ecf5224426f59032d8237e07d63cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 8c | 4,005$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.42 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 3c | 3,489$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.02 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 1c | 2,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 1c | 1,822$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 5c | 1,421$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.63 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed No | 67c | 1,413$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.55 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 41c | 1,397$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.16 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb851…0dfebacked No | 69c | 655.54$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.82 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 649.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked Yes | 13c | 630.27$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.18 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 2c | 544.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 18c | 526.34$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 29c | 500$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.47 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 404.35$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 13c | 385$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…c85dbacked Yes | 5c | 310.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 300.77$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 271$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 34c | 232.4$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 65c | 219.59$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.79 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 218$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed No | 75c | 207.31$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.17 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 6c | 205.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 33c | 171$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 27c | 168.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 21c | 159.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 151.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…f053backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…90f4backed Yes | 19c | 128.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 70c | 122.16$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 73c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 33c | 106.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 35c | 103.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 77c | 98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 70c | 89.22$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 23c | 87.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 21c | 82.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 81.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 45c | 71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes | 52c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8f…f793backed Yes | 37c | 63.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 18c | 61.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…e667backed Yes | 22c | 57.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 26c | 56.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 55c | 54.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 53.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 29c | 52.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 66c | 52.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 44.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 25c | 41.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 41.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 55c | 40.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…7f34backed No | 77c | 40.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 51c | 35.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 77c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 56c | 29.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…2794backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…e3f0backed No | 68c | 27.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…04edbacked No | 72c | 25.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 22.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 50c | 20.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…d242backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed Yes | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.