Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ac42425a33f2de8abf39e73d00f84882416301bd65b6ec7afa8b8da8465bf6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed No | 63c | 3,649$2,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,311.55 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 1c | 3,487$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…f053backed No | 21c | 2,192$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked No | 52c | 2,082$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.89 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed No | 1c | 1,998$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 18c | 1,672$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.83 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,472$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153.59 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 2c | 992.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 961.02$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 3c | 639.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 7c | 627.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 7c | 500$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.81 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 9c | 424.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.39 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 3c | 380.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 4c | 351.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 62c | 313.43$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 297$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 5c | 218.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.23 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 218$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 27c | 215$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 30c | 206.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83bd…a2a0backed Yes | 8c | 202.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.83 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 22c | 199.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.01 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 196.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 32c | 193.83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.3 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 51c | 186.69$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.48 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 11c | 182.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.4 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 11c | 166.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.34 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 26c | 164.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.87 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 17c | 157.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.92 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 9c | 129.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.67 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 39c | 116.95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 35c | 116.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 39c | 114$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 51c | 110.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 27c | 110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 31c | 107.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb851…0dfebacked Yes | 50c | 106.25$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 26c | 106.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.42 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…e667backed Yes | 10c | 105.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.39 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 104.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 49c | 98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007d…ffbebacked Yes | 53c | 86.68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 43c | 81.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 50c | 71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 70.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 38c | 67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes | 70c | 62.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 32c | 58.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 36c | 57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 41.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 40c | 37.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 37c | 35.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 38c | 32.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 57c | 28.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 67c | 27.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…e3f0backed No | 74c | 25.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 50c | 24.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 52c | 21.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6a…a8d1backed Yes | 55c | 20.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 78c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.