CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Arcade Esports vs Rooster (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup #2 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0579434bc6ee61b52e9eef9774567cbc516e6b4c0f9e769bd150c7f364b8bb3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Roosterof Arcade Esports, Rooster
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,614 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Arcade Esports | 0c | 3,681$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…b0f4backed Arcade Esports | 2c | 2,505$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Rooster | 69c | 2,028$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.38 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed Arcade Esports | 36c | 1,982$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.53 | 921 | 52.6%484 W · 437 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arcade Esports | 16c | 1,923$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.76 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc24…8f41backed Arcade Esports | 8c | 1,569$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Rooster | 75c | 1,228$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.81 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e2…d222backed Arcade Esports | 8c | 950$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0e…ad94backed Rooster | 50c | 806.67$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.67 | 113 | 65.5%74 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…158ebacked Arcade Esports | 35c | 625$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2628…2463backed Arcade Esports | 34c | 615$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…2086backed Arcade Esports | 34c | 590$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0e…021ebacked Arcade Esports | 41c | 482.61$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.3 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed Rooster | 56c | 471.01$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.02 | 275 | 56.4%155 W · 120 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…d22bbacked Rooster | 78c | 360$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d74…7a3ebacked Rooster | 65c | 320$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x072c…1d5ebacked Rooster | 57c | 315.79$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133d…a257backed Rooster | 66c | 315$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1f…a252backed Arcade Esports | 16c | 314.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb026…f467backed Rooster | 66c | 310$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…89e7backed Rooster | 65c | 305$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ce…e71bbacked Rooster | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Rooster | 54c | 299.5$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.43 | 783 | 48.4%379 W · 404 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…bb87backed Rooster | 73c | 291.53$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.51 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…d21fbacked Rooster | 66c | 280$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Arcade Esports | 31c | 270.1$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.37 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed Arcade Esports | 40c | 225.2$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.13 | 432 | 39.1%169 W · 263 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Arcade Esports | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 700 | 36.1%253 W · 447 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ec…961abacked Rooster | 57c | 181.32$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7f…f922backed Arcade Esports | 23c | 173.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Arcade Esports | 43c | 146.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f0…7462backed Rooster | 58c | 143$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb3…6bfebacked Arcade Esports | 55c | 139.64$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…2b6abacked Arcade Esports | 16c | 128.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf2…1e5bbacked Arcade Esports | 39c | 126.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Arcade Esports | 44c | 120.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 540 | 32.4%175 W · 365 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe5…cf64backed Arcade Esports | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arcade Esports | 43c | 99.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b0…f672backed Arcade Esports | 41c | 96.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f38…edd2backed Rooster | 71c | 93.12$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00d…4251backed Rooster | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…e850backed Arcade Esports | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Arcade Esports | 42c | 87.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0859…43acbacked Rooster | 55c | 69.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d2…118bbacked Arcade Esports | 44c | 67.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Arcade Esports | 51c | 61.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,352 | 52%703 W · 649 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Arcade Esports | 40c | 59.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Rooster | 57c | 56.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Rooster | 65c | 55.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe290…7fb0backed Arcade Esports | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x931c…bf4bbacked Rooster | 64c | 52.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 323 | 51.4%166 W · 157 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Rooster | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 368 | 45.9%169 W · 199 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2f…a15fbacked Arcade Esports | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…32c6backed Arcade Esports | 51c | 49.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked Arcade Esports | 46c | 46.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Arcade Esports | 25c | 45.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 958 | 49.8%477 W · 481 L | -17.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc003…47a8backed Rooster | 77c | 43.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8530…2302backed Rooster | 58c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Arcade Esports | 43c | 41.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 470 | 53.2%250 W · 220 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad06…b132backed Rooster | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…a7b8backed Arcade Esports | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3a…5c97backed Rooster | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79e0…b651backed Arcade Esports | 49c | 38.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Rooster | 65c | 34.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 373 | 39.7%148 W · 225 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Rooster | 60c | 34.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 459 | 56.9%261 W · 198 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…4596backed Rooster | 58c | 31.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Arcade Esports | 48c | 30.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…f7dfbacked Rooster | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 180 | 63.9%115 W · 65 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3589…35c0backed Rooster | 73c | 27.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdd…73b5backed Rooster | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8945…640bbacked Rooster | 67c | 20.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 262 | 57.6%151 W · 111 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…eaffbacked Rooster | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff95…3c1cbacked Rooster | 59c | 18.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -6.1wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Rooster | 57c | 17.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -14.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Arcade Esports vs Rooster (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup #2 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Arcade Esports vs Rooster - Map 2 WinnerRooster won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.