Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0580c5211631c37cc92eb295026add178e47be94638d9c22efb87cfe09028df3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 34c | 1,166$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.47 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 52c | 766.86$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 456.08$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.95 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 65c | 320$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f10…9d99backed Yes | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 47c | 255.84$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.68 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 5c | 192.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 65c | 174.92$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.7 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 169.5$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 147.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 118$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 42c | 117.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 43c | 116.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 65c | 97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 55c | 93.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 53c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 25c | 73.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 48c | 70.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 65c | 67.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 46c | 67.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…caa4backed No | 56c | 62.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 42c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 65c | 48.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…9145backed Yes | 62c | 44.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df6…b9a7backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 41.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 37c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 37.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked No | 56c | 34.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 55c | 33.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 40c | 32.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 40c | 32.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 41c | 29.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 41c | 29.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 27.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 25.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 54c | 24.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 22.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 45c | 22.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 51c | 21.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 56c | 20.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 61c | 18.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.