Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28b91a92dabca43ed41f302fd780b691b1a499aa877e358b7e760cc76b8ca220
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 415.35$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.51 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 351.75$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.56 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 20c | 300$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 299.1$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 80c | 250.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 65c | 240.47$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.12 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 214.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 19c | 193.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.67 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 175$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 169.5$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.91 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 21c | 167.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.22 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 80c | 148.48$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.13 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 19c | 142.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.65 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 12c | 139.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 42c | 107$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.06 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 17c | 90.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.32 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 90$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 79c | 84.68$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 71.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 18c | 64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 18c | 62.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 60.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 73c | 59.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 20c | 55.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 28c | 51.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 79c | 46.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 40c | 41.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdf…0ee4backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 33c | 39.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 27.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 43c | 23.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 58c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.