Spread: Arizona State Sun Devils (-12.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05ae6c714101d4837a7064edc0b4407ebd13d2992494ea576627e44c2625b69f

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Oregon State Beaversof Arizona State Sun Devils, Oregon State Beavers
Resolved: Dec 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,378
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,383

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,378 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x89ad…5e22backed Oregon State Beavers	48c	146$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.92	55	49.1%27 W · 28 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6132…7665backed Oregon State Beavers	48c	145$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.4	31	67.7%21 W · 10 L	+5.6wins	+0.18per pick	50cpaid	+31.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9061…9510backed Oregon State Beavers	48c	131$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.12	71	46.5%33 W · 38 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd53…a861backed Oregon State Beavers	48c	129$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.08	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Oregon State Beavers	62c	128$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.37	5,553	47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L	+26.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc079…8881backed Arizona State Sun Devils	42c	119$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.98	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb82d…5d1ebacked Oregon State Beavers	48c	105$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.6	69	55.1%38 W · 31 L	+5.3wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc49c…6dcabacked Oregon State Beavers	48c	101$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.52	72	43.1%31 W · 41 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd851…9305backed Oregon State Beavers	48c	79$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.08	42	54.8%23 W · 19 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e4f…243cbacked Oregon State Beavers	48c	73$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.96	51	56.9%29 W · 22 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0c0…07d8backed Oregon State Beavers	48c	59$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.68	58	44.8%26 W · 32 L	-3.7wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1488…0672backed Oregon State Beavers	48c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	52	53.8%28 W · 24 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa521…4599backed Oregon State Beavers	49c	46$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.46	69	50.7%35 W · 34 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fef…a3d3backed Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd595…7893backed Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	25	48%12 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e1a…60e5backed Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.28	25	48%12 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa9…7097backed Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.76	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Oregon State Beavers	47c	37.74$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02ec…5412backed Arizona State Sun Devils	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	100	48%48 W · 52 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9db…ab38backed Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	37$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.24	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f96…92e0backed Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	37$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.24	34	61.8%21 W · 13 L	+3.5wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x38a6…bbd5backed Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	37$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.24	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d10…e17cbacked Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	36$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.72	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-3.6wins	-0.13per pick	52cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcdd0…4938backed Oregon State Beavers	48c	36$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.72	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5a9…f72ebacked Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	35$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb520…60bcbacked Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	35$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-7.5wins	-0.23per pick	55cpaid	-39%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x684b…47edbacked Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	34$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.68	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8358…956bbacked Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	33$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.16	34	55.9%19 W · 15 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb75…bc16backed Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	32$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.64	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-3.9wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb780…e7a2backed Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	31$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.12	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-11%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7a…6563backed Oregon State Beavers	48c	31$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.12	51	49%25 W · 26 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d3b…bd9fbacked Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	28$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.56	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.7wins	-0.30per pick	53cpaid	-55.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8cf9…1abfbacked Oregon State Beavers	48c	27$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	43	58.1%25 W · 18 L	+3.4wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf340…6224backed Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	26$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.52	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f57…6d41backed Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	26$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.52	36	58.3%21 W · 15 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14c2…6070backed Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	26$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.52	28	64.3%18 W · 10 L	+2.8wins	+0.10per pick	54cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d2d…ffcebacked Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1670…d6a2backed Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.48	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3b3…27babacked Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.48	21	76.2%16 W · 5 L	+4.9wins	+0.23per pick	53cpaid	+46.7%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5266…ddaebacked Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.48	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-3.2wins	-0.20per pick	51cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x88d0…524cbacked Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.48	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…87a4backed Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.96	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+2.7wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d67…cf38backed Oregon State Beavers	48c	23$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.96	49	59.2%29 W · 20 L	+3.5wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73c5…4997backed Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-2.6wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e5d…e5bfbacked Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7690…92cbbacked Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.92	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-6.8wins	-0.32per pick	56cpaid	-59.3%equal weight	34-0.15 edge/pick
0x07a4…be3abacked Arizona State Sun Devils	51c	21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.71	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77ec…4f9cbacked Arizona State Sun Devils	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	26	50%13 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Arizona State Sun Devils (-12.5)this page
Oregon State Beavers vs. Arizona State Sun DevilsOregon State Beavers won
Oregon State Beavers vs. Arizona State Sun Devils: O/U 147.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Arizona State Sun Devils (-12.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event