Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Oregon State Beavers vs. Arizona State Sun Devils: O/U 147.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1116216d653db12a88f108ee4340489526c00a00761fa4df2deef792f7953de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 54c | 27,557$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,000 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 46c | 17,425$8,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,409.52 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 53c | 9,000$4,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,768.27 | 369 | 44.2%163 W · 206 L | -19.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 5,109$2,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,704 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 47c | 4,200$1,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,226 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 4,022$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,181.28 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 43c | 3,587$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,048.63 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 43c | 750$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 497 | 46.5%231 W · 266 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…8c7abacked Over | 49c | 383.49$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.58 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 211$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.01 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 49c | 183.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Under | 51c | 128$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Under | 50c | 94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Under | 50c | 76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Under | 50c | 74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 52c | 72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Under | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Over | 49c | 53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked Over | 47c | 51.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 154 | 42.9%66 W · 88 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…daabbacked Over | 48c | 45.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 214 | 55.6%119 W · 95 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…9f8dbacked Over | 49c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +6.0wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Over | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d19…8b58backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Over | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 115 | 36.5%42 W · 73 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…b38dbacked Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Over | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38b9…1cb4backed Over | 48c | 23.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Over | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…92cbbacked Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -6.8wins | -0.32per pick | 56cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x063c…d642backed Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…f8afbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67de…1d9bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oregon State Beavers vs. Arizona State Sun Devils: O/U 147.5this page
- Oregon State Beavers vs. Arizona State Sun DevilsOregon State Beavers won
- Spread: Arizona State Sun Devils (-12.5)Oregon State Beavers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.