Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Oregon State Beavers vs. Arizona State Sun Devils
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf1edde771768e2847a9e926ed190789f8116b1d87b5dd274752fcb90f99204f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oregon State Beaversof Oregon State Beavers, Arizona State Sun Devils
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee14…8055backed Oregon State Beavers | 48c | 2,849$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,495.4 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Oregon State Beavers | 56c | 2,155$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.99 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 50c | 2,070$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.9 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 39c | 1,586$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.82 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…ed44backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 40c | 1,534$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 464 | 46.8%217 W · 247 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 1c | 1,486$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Oregon State Beavers | 79c | 1,400$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.83 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2e…bfa2backed Oregon State Beavers | 10c | 1,376$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.56 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Oregon State Beavers | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Oregon State Beavers | 12c | 808.06$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.97 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 78c | 619.29$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.14 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 39c | 511.04$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.31 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5520…32ffbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Oregon State Beavers | 11c | 413.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.19 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Oregon State Beavers | 33c | 365.8$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.98 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed Oregon State Beavers | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.14 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 54c | 354$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.2 | 369 | 42.3%156 W · 213 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 36c | 348.04$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.09 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 59c | 278.48$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.47 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 19c | 210.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 175 | 46.3%81 W · 94 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…9ac1backed Oregon State Beavers | 24c | 168.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.19 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Oregon State Beavers | 12c | 153$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.88 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 74c | 151$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.74 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 45c | 131.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 68c | 124$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.32 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ca…5b34backed Oregon State Beavers | 25c | 119.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 154 | 42.9%66 W · 88 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Oregon State Beavers | 21c | 106.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.98 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…95b1backed Oregon State Beavers | 26c | 77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.07 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 18cpaid | +108%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 65c | 71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 77c | 66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Oregon State Beavers | 29c | 62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 40c | 59.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e5…fe31backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 4.2%4 W · 91 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -86%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cb…6c2abacked Oregon State Beavers | 22c | 49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Oregon State Beavers | 32c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5b7dbacked Oregon State Beavers | 32c | 34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oregon State Beavers vs. Arizona State Sun Devilsthis page
- Oregon State Beavers vs. Arizona State Sun Devils: O/U 147.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona State Sun Devils (-12.5)Oregon State Beavers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.