Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05e1181f359519e7419a7ec63e2a0547d79fa9a3a5361905621bb3cd0a3f09db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 73c | 456.59$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.28 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 435.96$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 68c | 350$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.56 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 345.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 10c | 333.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 63c | 309$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.48 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 79c | 252.59$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 26c | 242.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 38c | 235$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.63 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 75c | 148.39$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 141.64$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 140.39$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.27 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…0e1cbacked Yes | 71c | 139.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 35c | 100.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 72c | 100.74$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 38c | 91.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 25c | 74.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 60c | 68.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 65c | 64.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 61.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 32c | 60.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 60c | 55.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8792…4174backed No | 64c | 53.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 52.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 32c | 47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 32c | 46.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 27c | 45.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 38c | 44.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 65c | 44.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 36c | 41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 57c | 35.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 34.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77af…3747backed Yes | 64c | 34.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe805…e416backed No | 68c | 34.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…9847backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb722…f03abacked Yes | 69c | 29.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 65c | 27.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 70c | 25.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…1fb0backed Yes | 60c | 22.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2695…60f8backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x503f…9a8fbacked Yes | 69c | 18.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 62c | 16.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or below on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.