TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: KW vs PuckChamp - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PuckChampof KW, PuckChamp
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,762
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,170

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,762 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9cec…91cdbacked PuckChamp73c6,637$4,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,808.992540%10 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2d0…7bbfbacked KW28c6,223$1,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,742.135048%24 W · 26 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked KW11c3,537$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.8569835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf43f…6c9dbacked PuckChamp79c2,832$2,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.991181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.27per pick55cpaid+57.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb3a4…6c3ebacked PuckChamp74c2,600$1,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6765137.3%19 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d15…a2d0backed PuckChamp76c2,200$1,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.94100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked KW19c2,083$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.921,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed KW26c1,600$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41657449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked KW24c1,499$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.872,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e3b…be27backed KW14c1,279$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.1321047.6%100 W · 110 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed PuckChamp72c999.99$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28050769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed KW28c940$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.237745.4%171 W · 206 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba57…1e84backed KW34c735.87$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25015050.7%76 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed PuckChamp71c613.02$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.8343067%288 W · 142 L+31.9wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed KW22c500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11034442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1d5…54d5backed PuckChamp66c499.96$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.963528.6%10 W · 25 L-6.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-45.3%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x9417…8440backed PuckChamp76c387.97$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.399455.3%52 W · 42 L+11.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+41%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed PuckChamp72c350$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.516256.8%92 W · 70 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe9b…cbe5backed KW26c348.08$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905242.3%22 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed KW32c320.02$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.48847.7%42 W · 46 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed KW25c302.13$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.1324636.6%90 W · 156 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9aff…b136backed KW20c299.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6032445.1%146 W · 178 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed KW26c257.84$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0427737.2%103 W · 174 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked KW9c241.11$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.732548.9%159 W · 166 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21dd…e4f5backed PuckChamp75c240$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608053.8%43 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d96…3d50backed PuckChamp64c226.89$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.551553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x17b0…2c88backed KW28c224.75$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.93540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked KW17c220.58$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.840534.6%140 W · 265 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked PuckChamp69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4777256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32a9…fc3fbacked KW5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104325.6%11 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c1b…ca93backed KW5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102161.9%13 W · 8 L+5.0wins+0.24per pick38cpaid+40.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2e45…4b13backed PuckChamp74c162.38$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3813975.5%105 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2363…ed78backed KW24c152.5$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed KW47c150$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1512646%58 W · 68 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c8b…7a07backed PuckChamp68c147.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.214858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x14b0…a142backed KW28c145$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.61650%8 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed KW26c140$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.424138.6%93 W · 148 L-18.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8efb…c0e6backed PuckChamp72c138.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1522259%131 W · 91 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked KW20c134.9$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.781,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked KW25c130.53$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.281,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed PuckChamp76c127.09$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1781345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9f4…c1e4backed KW27c112.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0942639.4%168 W · 258 L-39.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf99c…3f0abacked KW23c108.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259161.5%56 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed PuckChamp75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2550353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x72c8…a74cbacked KW25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2524942.6%106 W · 143 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f3d…1f52backed KW23c99.46$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236058.3%35 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed KW28c90$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.247548%228 W · 247 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed KW25c83$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6747951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked KW30c80$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.666947.1%315 W · 354 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked PuckChamp76c78.79$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0589238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed PuckChamp77c73.67$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6517537.1%65 W · 110 L-13.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-22.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x94eb…fcdfbacked PuckChamp70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.431947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x788e…e086backed PuckChamp71c70.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.651764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed KW21c67.07$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1534041.2%140 W · 200 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x249e…4fa6backed KW21c66.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9717249.4%85 W · 87 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ae4…7084backed PuckChamp79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.291050%5 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed KW40c59.68$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8729432.3%95 W · 199 L-19.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1991…348ebacked PuckChamp76c58.7$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8513647.1%64 W · 72 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed KW41c57.66$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8519449%95 W · 99 L+11.8wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked KW41c57$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3789749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed KW42c55.38$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4868649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57d9…fa69backed KW22c54.39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f25…d5debacked KW25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.52240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab20…d9e2backed PuckChamp72c49.47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.081546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed KW24c47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.512353.7%66 W · 57 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked PuckChamp71c45.42$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1566545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88f2…a6c1backed PuckChamp71c43.6$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.867343.8%32 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ba9…a8d8backed PuckChamp73c39.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1122562.2%140 W · 85 L-0.7wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc269…7841backed KW28c39.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113228.1%9 W · 23 L-5.9wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-42.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3e2c…9642backed KW37c37.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.825131.4%16 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked PuckChamp75c36.78$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0844049.3%217 W · 223 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked PuckChamp54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.812263.9%78 W · 44 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xedab…8926backed PuckChamp75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.512055%66 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed PuckChamp77c29.93$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9458943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x81f0…8b09backed PuckChamp71c27.87$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.96666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfb…7665backed PuckChamp74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.033100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+92%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe77…8fe4backed PuckChamp49c23.88$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.091030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-47%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed PuckChamp72c18.3$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.121346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77de…e67abacked PuckChamp67c14.95$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9414848%71 W · 77 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa7…afb4backed PuckChamp71c14.29$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.176857.4%39 W · 29 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked PuckChamp72c14$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9258746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked PuckChamp72c14$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9256945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.