Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: KW vs PuckChamp - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb362d91ded7b692b51d65fc59ce748fa9bda466fd5699f68ee74f68190f1036
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PuckChampof KW, PuckChamp
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked KW | 29c | 1,015$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.68 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…b136backed KW | 26c | 600$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 314 | 44.9%141 W · 173 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked PuckChamp | 68c | 564.49$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.37 | 800 | 56%448 W · 352 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…527ebacked PuckChamp | 67c | 478$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.43 | 325 | 49.8%162 W · 163 L | +23.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3b…be27backed KW | 12c | 458.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 210 | 47.6%100 W · 110 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed KW | 6c | 449.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 928 | 46.2%429 W · 499 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked KW | 24c | 358.91$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.17 | 1,691 | 41.4%700 W · 991 L | -40.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed KW | 15c | 338.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 474 | 57.4%272 W · 202 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed PuckChamp | 72c | 332.33$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 417 | 39.6%165 W · 252 L | -38.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf43f…6c9dbacked PuckChamp | 58c | 330.12$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.1 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 55cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ade…fb15backed KW | 31c | 257.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed PuckChamp | 69c | 229.73$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.22 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed KW | 27c | 212.19$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 473 | 48.2%228 W · 245 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked KW | 26c | 201.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked KW | 32c | 201.48$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 1,894 | 47.7%903 W · 991 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…a74cbacked KW | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 245 | 42.4%104 W · 141 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc15f…223dbacked KW | 32c | 167.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 117 | 47.9%56 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed PuckChamp | 71c | 153.66$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 409 | 33%135 W · 274 L | -36.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a66…fa83backed KW | 31c | 145.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -66%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed KW | 31c | 130.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 364 | 52.5%191 W · 173 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…1e84backed PuckChamp | 62c | 124$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked PuckChamp | 72c | 115.42$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 878 | 38.3%336 W · 542 L | -42.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed KW | 33c | 114.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…c9f4backed KW | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked KW | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b26…6091backed KW | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd85…1a8dbacked PuckChamp | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked PuckChamp | 77c | 94$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 565 | 45%254 W · 311 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked KW | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked PuckChamp | 70c | 89.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 412 | 46.8%193 W · 219 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked PuckChamp | 77c | 82.34$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 436 | 49.1%214 W · 222 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed PuckChamp | 78c | 79.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 802 | 44.9%360 W · 442 L | -27.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf99c…3f0abacked PuckChamp | 78c | 75.96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked PuckChamp | 70c | 75.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 612 | 56%343 W · 269 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed PuckChamp | 71c | 72.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked KW | 35c | 68.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed PuckChamp | 74c | 67.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…663bbacked KW | 28c | 61.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed PuckChamp | 75c | 61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 634 | 47.6%302 W · 332 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed KW | 26c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…292dbacked PuckChamp | 71c | 55.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 225 | 58.2%131 W · 94 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked KW | 35c | 53.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d9…fa69backed PuckChamp | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x868d…78c9backed PuckChamp | 64c | 44.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed KW | 30c | 37.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 245 | 36.7%90 W · 155 L | -14.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed KW | 36c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed PuckChamp | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b39…8593backed PuckChamp | 72c | 27.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked PuckChamp | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 889 | 38%338 W · 551 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked PuckChamp | 74c | 21.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 300 | 54.7%164 W · 136 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked PuckChamp | 70c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked PuckChamp | 71c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: KW vs PuckChamp - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: KW vs PuckChamp (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group APuckChamp won
- Dota 2: KW vs PuckChamp - Game 2 WinnerPuckChamp won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: PckCp (-1.5) vs KW (+1.5)PuckChamp won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.