NHL · resolved market
Stars vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0629ec7803cea02f4d7186298876e37788b7b8e4721bbcc57a0546cad5ef3bb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 49c | 3,981$1,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950.69 | 207 | 56.5%117 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Over | 51c | 3,634$1,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,780.56 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…d3bcbacked Over | 47c | 2,001$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.53 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec9…2f29backed Under | 52c | 2,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.98 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Over | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 1,735$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.41 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 873.96$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.38 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d30…11f1backed Under | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 587.24$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.75 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 48c | 516.08$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.72 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 50c | 369.64$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.21 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0344…b3fabacked Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a2…cd05backed Over | 49c | 299$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e6…0f97backed Over | 50c | 290$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d74…dcf3backed Under | 51c | 278$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 50c | 207.06$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.55 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 50c | 203$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.53 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 48c | 184.89$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 49c | 160.96$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.87 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 50c | 159.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.03 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Over | 52c | 152.12$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.02 | 294 | 48.6%143 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 51c | 149.44$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Under | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…3622backed Over | 52c | 128.62$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 52c | 98.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 49c | 90.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 47c | 84.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 50c | 71.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Under | 49c | 40.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Under | 49c | 38.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 127 | 48.8%62 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 66c | 34.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 52c | 31.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 57c | 29.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…3fc7backed Under | 54c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a10cbacked Over | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb223…3772backed Over | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 56c | 19.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Over | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stars vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Stars won
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
- Stars vs. Maple LeafsStars won
- Stars vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Stars vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Stars vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.