NHL · resolved market
Spread: Stars (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51a1e5265162537b63517756bcda3ef37b045c6441bfc47dcfb5c97aa982f796
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Stars, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Stars | 40c | 1,581$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.77 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 1,110$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.05 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 976$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.4 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Stars | 40c | 788.34$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.34 | 204 | 50%102 W · 102 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 520.05$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.52 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Maple Leafs | 75c | 434.72$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.64 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…d3bcbacked Stars | 40c | 415.59$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.22 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Stars | 40c | 323.48$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.08 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 232.56$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Stars | 43c | 224.6$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…3d9dbacked Stars | 42c | 193.04$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.08 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 192.12$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.93 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Stars | 13c | 189.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Stars | 39c | 184.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Maple Leafs | 62c | 146.92$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 128.46$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Stars | 17c | 123.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Stars | 39c | 103.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…fb99backed Stars | 41c | 103.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 91.46$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Stars | 25c | 90.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 82.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Maple Leafs | 62c | 78.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 70.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Stars | 43c | 67.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 67.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Maple Leafs | 62c | 64.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Maple Leafs | 62c | 64.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Stars | 18c | 62.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 57.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Stars | 39c | 51.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 169 | 59.8%101 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Maple Leafs | 68c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…3429backed Stars | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 46.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Stars | 28c | 44.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Maple Leafs | 65c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Stars | 41c | 39.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…f414backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 38.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc45d…de2fbacked Stars | 39c | 37.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Maple Leafs | 62c | 36.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Maple Leafs | 63c | 36.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Stars | 42c | 36.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 34.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Stars | 40c | 32.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Maple Leafs | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Stars | 38c | 30.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 29.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Maple Leafs | 50c | 25.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Maple Leafs | 62c | 22.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Maple Leafs | 75c | 15.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Stars won
- Stars vs. Maple LeafsStars won
- Stars vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Stars vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Stars vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Stars vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.