Tennis · resolved market
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 Women's Madrid Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x064faeffbdb8588cb3ebd3a5b9901da787fe010bdd0652a9809765055ac87a52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $152,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $153,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa14…5133backed No | 44c | 40,902$17,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,996.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…8b9dbacked Yes | 56c | 40,902$22,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,996.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2551…5a18backed No | 62c | 31,117$19,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,292.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…fd3bbacked Yes | 38c | 31,117$11,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,292.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked No | 45c | 4,997$2,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,258.78 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1484…cafebacked Yes | 55c | 1,801$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.64 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 54c | 900$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417 | 231 | 52.4%121 W · 110 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Yes | 52c | 435.54$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.06 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Yes | 55c | 378.31$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.24 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 52c | 354.65$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.82 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd073…b757backed No | 48c | 343.1$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.69 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -6.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked Yes | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +6.4wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 55c | 231.36$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.11 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…7a4abacked Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdc…7cddbacked Yes | 55c | 183.64$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.64 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd483…756dbacked Yes | 55c | 182.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.08 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da0…2825backed Yes | 55c | 163.64$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c36…c074backed Yes | 55c | 149.69$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5e…3668backed Yes | 55c | 131.45$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 49c | 116.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.74 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…3054backed Yes | 44c | 110.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fed…3b22backed Yes | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a73…8b3bbacked Yes | 47c | 104.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 57c | 96.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…0ac5backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Yes | 55c | 78.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 103 | 72.8%75 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked No | 47c | 77.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee0d…ebccbacked Yes | 33c | 73.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 67c | 72.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x566f…8f86backed Yes | 55c | 70.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f9…f503backed Yes | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc17…2a3bbacked Yes | 55c | 59.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c88…f771backed No | 48c | 58.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 60c | 55.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4555…7209backed Yes | 54c | 52.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe29a…e3b2backed Yes | 44c | 50.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 67c | 49.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c6…6d71backed Yes | 55c | 47.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 52c | 46.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 527 | 50.3%265 W · 262 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…e35fbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x369d…6d58backed Yes | 55c | 39.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa13…bb39backed Yes | 40c | 28.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked Yes | 54c | 27.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe112…4a11backed Yes | 55c | 27.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…9e97backed Yes | 55c | 26.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd740…54f6backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ff…d049backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 Women's Madrid Open?this page
- Will Coco Gauff win the 2025 Women's Madrid Open?No won
- Will Iga Świątek win the 2025 Women's Madrid Open?No won
- Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2025 Women's Madrid Open?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.