South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Rosario Central vs. CA Independiente end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06627796809b9761c51bba396c31c9c1e976314a88cd75848a2c76ea9c237b4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 44c | 1,616$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.72 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…f240backed Yes | 32c | 1,500$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 66c | 700$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 49c | 428.55$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.71 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 47c | 381$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.07 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 25c | 353.57$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…37acbacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 80c | 296.8$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.01 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 67c | 269.92$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.07 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 52c | 250.98$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.75 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 68c | 189.16$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 67c | 133.44$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 68c | 79.82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 67c | 52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Yes | 48c | 41.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 197 | 61.9%122 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 51c | 32.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Rosario Central vs. CA Independiente end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Independiente win on 2026-05-10?No won
- Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.