Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x066893b4554f6ca8f9b0ef1bf371e11881f1766eabf2176163b431f52c846555
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 22c | 1,562$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.97 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 1,010$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.21 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 595.57$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 469.34$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.39 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 79c | 421.92$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.01 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 79c | 347.4$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.22 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 301.8$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 298.24$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 78c | 231.99$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 24c | 208$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 20c | 202.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba70…0694backed Yes | 18c | 166.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 18c | 140$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0210…7e92backed Yes | 24c | 115.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 19c | 62.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 24c | 58.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 58.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 26.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 76c | 21.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 76c | 21.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…52e4backed No | 76c | 17.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 76c | 13.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 78c | 13.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or higher on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.