MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x068c2f57f1f035e02f49fdc13ec3fd768607df6534210376431be85ce0137d08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 6,230$3,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,758.05 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed New York Mets | 35c | 3,000$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed New York Mets | 40c | 2,973$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,794.08 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 72c | 2,807$2,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,008.11 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed New York Mets | 42c | 1,065$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.97 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed New York Mets | 32c | 925.5$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.9 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 549.53$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.7 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 517.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.96 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed New York Mets | 39c | 511.24$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.13 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed New York Mets | 41c | 447.04$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.75 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed New York Mets | 68c | 399.96$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.99 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 372.86$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.45 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 305.02$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.41 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 38c | 225.82$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.77 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked New York Mets | 28c | 194.29$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.78 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Mets | 78c | 190.38$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 22c | 168.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…8680backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 127.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 115$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 67c | 105.93$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked New York Mets | 42c | 95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…f6afbacked New York Mets | 35c | 94.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 310 | 32.9%102 W · 208 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed New York Mets | 43c | 91.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed New York Mets | 31c | 88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 32c | 75.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 32c | 75.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 32c | 73.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed New York Mets | 41c | 71.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed New York Mets | 24c | 68.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 67.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed New York Mets | 53c | 65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed New York Mets | 35c | 63.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Mets | 33c | 59.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked New York Mets | 34c | 57.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 56.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed New York Mets | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed New York Mets | 42c | 49.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed New York Mets | 25c | 46.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 44.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 69c | 42.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked New York Mets | 28c | 38.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…9651backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 30.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 335 | 56.1%188 W · 147 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…c392backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 67c | 29.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 27.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0f…3c8ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 18.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 16.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNew York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.