Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06a6122bf198a01e3ff03bcc50580ca94bbe709fec4dbb58faedf3b21212b946
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 363.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes | 31c | 247$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 69c | 203.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.53 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 69c | 143.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 24c | 108.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.18 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 73c | 101.76$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 31c | 79.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 73.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked No | 53c | 70.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 46c | 65.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…362abacked Yes | 30c | 64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 61.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 65c | 57.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 53.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 43c | 48.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 26c | 45.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 43.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 32c | 43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 35c | 42.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 50c | 40.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 37.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…0a35backed Yes | 65c | 34.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 43c | 32.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 64c | 26.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 72c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c8…d0a3backed No | 61c | 19.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 64c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.