Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06cfef5f6a2c1a17936819190c93ec16e0d5f0a2b718798bd3bd98e1a1fe81a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc898…b0f8backed Yes | 0c | 18,019$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 461.28$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 409.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 63c | 385.56$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.68 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 41c | 382.18$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.6 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 77c | 350.99$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.77 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed No | 59c | 309.02$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.46 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 41c | 302.61$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.15 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ec…17c6backed Yes | 22c | 230.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 228.95$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 193.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.92 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 10c | 174.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 168.33$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 33c | 166.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.34 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 75c | 158.68$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…843ebacked Yes | 33c | 152.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 29c | 110$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 78c | 110$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 20c | 105.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.79 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.02 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 87.55$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 27c | 86.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 78.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 17c | 76.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 24c | 59.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 38c | 58.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed No | 34c | 58.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 58.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 63c | 57.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 64c | 56.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 20c | 55.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…b70cbacked Yes | 57c | 53.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 52.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 50.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 40c | 46.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 61c | 45.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 57c | 44.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 43.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 70c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 30c | 41.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 74c | 40.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 34c | 40.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 50c | 39.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x577e…3756backed No | 68c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 52c | 38.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 37.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd3…bee3backed No | 56c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 63c | 35.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed No | 48c | 33.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 77c | 29.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 74c | 26.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 69c | 24.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 52c | 23.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 79c | 23.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…d757backed Yes | 58c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.38per pick | 51cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked No | 50c | 20.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96f9…fababacked Yes | 76c | 20.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 73c | 19.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 77c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…8cf8backed No | 80c | 18.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 80c | 18.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2194…ae18backed No | 65c | 17.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9cd1backed Yes | 70c | 17.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.