MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06db5a2405fc51964c5a91158356ddc6f778519a16560e130103ed850e344b50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Under | 49c | 22,230$10,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,337.3 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 51c | 18,166$9,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,264.75 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Under | 49c | 9,750$4,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,972.5 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 48c | 6,890$3,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,582.71 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 52c | 3,300$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.67 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 2,854$1,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.93 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 49c | 2,376$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.51 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 51c | 1,278$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.7 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 51c | 1,100$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 916.89$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.61 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 51c | 687.29$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.52 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 660.63$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.95 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Over | 52c | 623.55$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.25 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 52c | 598.44$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.19 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Over | 36c | 544.67$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.08 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 51c | 496.4$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.13 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 51c | 359.99$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 34c | 353.5$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.55 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 52c | 254$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.31 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 237.34$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.49 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a96…998dbacked Under | 69c | 203.04$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.04 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 667 | 48.7%325 W · 342 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 53c | 189$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Over | 52c | 181.52$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.39 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 52c | 173.08$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…bb1dbacked Under | 55c | 156.36$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Under | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…f251backed Over | 19c | 113.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 49c | 107.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 27c | 94.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 51c | 80.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 52c | 61.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 848 | 40.2%341 W · 507 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 22c | 60.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Over | 52c | 59.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3d…11ecbacked Over | 53c | 50.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…f3c5backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 47c | 46.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed Over | 52c | 42.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 48c | 42.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Under | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Under | 53c | 41.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…c459backed Under | 49c | 40.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 66c | 39.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 51c | 39.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 52c | 38.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Over | 52c | 38.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0312…516bbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 61c | 35.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 74c | 32.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7732…c59ebacked Over | 52c | 32.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8a…7d07backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d9…25cbbacked Under | 49c | 30.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 56c | 27.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Over | 50c | 26.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Over | 51c | 25.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Over | 52c | 24.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 42c | 24.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 70c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.