MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ac78ed179364680952bac80ff72b130bef46af6d57f9c312f12f2a5ce8cb7da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 65c | 1,558$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.97 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b3…49f8backed Houston Astros | 32c | 1,554$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.67 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 800.64$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.22 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Houston Astros | 56c | 750$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros | 56c | 744.16$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.73 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Houston Astros | 41c | 572$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.47 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Houston Astros | 55c | 522.01$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.1 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 397.4$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.57 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…9ea3backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 375$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 271.93$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Houston Astros | 67c | 198$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.66 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Houston Astros | 48c | 179$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Houston Astros | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…7939backed Houston Astros | 54c | 120.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 100.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 100.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 100.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Houston Astros | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 90.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 67c | 69.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Seattle Mariners | 60c | 67.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Houston Astros | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Houston Astros | 57c | 53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Houston Astros | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Houston Astros | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…cbf2backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 37.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Houston Astros | 58c | 35.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…77e6backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Seattle Mariners | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Seattle Mariners | 60c | 31.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Houston Astros | 48c | 29.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Seattle Mariners | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners | 73c | 26.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Houston Astros | 58c | 24.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Houston Astros | 55c | 21.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Seattle Mariners | 54c | 21.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Seattle Mariners | 54c | 18.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.