Earnings · resolved market
Will Philip Morris International (PM) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06fbb392e84a4fd0e669a69569e74de8b203b7452939100bcc8cedd07b16601c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked No | 16c | 999.94$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 12c | 717.2$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.11 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed No | 16c | 600$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.73 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 14c | 526.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.47 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 17c | 305.09$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed Yes | 78c | 256.02$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…9a10backed No | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 17c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 23c | 186.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 14c | 180.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked No | 9c | 161$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…45abbacked No | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 18c | 71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…715fbacked No | 19c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a9…c79ebacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.